4December 2020
The NAM, American (GFS) and Canadian models are in the no snow or just flurries camp, forecasting that either the disturbance will track too far south or not produce adequate wetness for collecting snow.
The main European design, nevertheless, tracks the disturbance far sufficient north and predicts it will have sufficient juice for the possibility of a light build-up. Its existing forecast reveals the potential for a cleaning to an inch.
In the 50 simulations of the entire European modeling system, about one-quarter of them forecast a minimum of a cleaning however simply a few of them predict more than an inch. Forty percent of them show no precipitation. In general, it recommends just a 10 to 20 percent chance of an inch of snow in the immediate location, increasing to 20 to 30 percent to the southwest. Places from Charlottesville and to the west have a much better possibility of quantifiable snowfall.
Temperatures at high altitudes look plenty cold enough for snow but temperature levels closer to the ground look minimal for accumulation on more than grassy areas, especially along and east of Interstate 95. However, the European design drops the temperature level below freezing west of Interstate 95, which might allow for some slick areas on road surfaces in our cooler areas if a period of light snow takes place.
If temperatures move any cooler in future forecasts and designs pattern towards heavier rainfall, this event might cause more widespread slick areas and interruption. However if it patterns warmer or drier, it's a nonevent.
Today, anything that falls appears it will be mainly conversational to assist get snow fans in the holiday spirit. But the European model projection could completely be an incorrect alarm.
Source: washingtonpost.com