Hurricane watch for D.C. area. Isaias to bring risk of ‘significant’ flooding and strong winds Tuesday. – The Washington Post

2August 2020

Three to 6 inches of rain, with in your area heavier amounts, are predicted.”This quantity of rain is likely to result in considerable flash flooding of little streams and creeks Monday night into Tuesday evening,”the National Weather Service office serving Washington and Baltimore composed Sunday afternoon. Low-lying, bad drain areas likewise will be susceptible to flooding. In addition to the rain, locations east of Interstate 95– specifically near to the Chesapeake Bay– might contend with tropical-storm-force wind gusts on Tuesday going beyond 40 miles per hour for a time. The mix of wind and rain could cause downed trees and power blackouts. The immediate Washington area is under a hurricane expect the possibility of winds this strong, however they are not likely unless the storm track shifts to the west.

There is greater self-confidence in heavy rains. Moderate coastal flooding is likewise possible along the shores of the Tidal Potomac and Chesapeake from a rise of water up these waterways as the storm pushes north. This might affect susceptible zones such as Alexandria, the Southwest Waterfront, Georgetown and Annapolis, triggering _ blank”> a seaside flood watch for water levels one to three feet above regular.

How the rain and wind will progress Moisture rising ahead of the tropical storm might fuel spread showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and night, which might be locally heavy and produce gusty winds. But Monday will not be a washout, and some areas may not see much.

The primary slug of rain ahead of Isaias is likely to show up between late Monday night and dawn Tuesday and continue into Tuesday evening. This rain could be very heavy sometimes before tapering off. Specifically east of Interstate 95, a few of the storm's extremely heavy rain bands may release tropical-storm-force wind gusts.

Although shifts are possible in where the heaviest rain and strongest winds are expected, computer models are consistent in predicting prevalent amounts of 2 to five inches, with some revealing small pockets up to eight inches. Here is how much the various models task for D.C. through Tuesday evening:

  • European: 2.5 inches
  • UKMet: 2.7 inches
  • American: 3.5 inches
  • NAM: 7.8 inches High-resolution NAM: 4.5 inches
  • Canadian: 5.1 inches

Discussion It's not just Isaias by itself that is projected to dump all of this rain. The core of the hurricane moving north-northeastward along the East Coast will come across a preexisting, mid-latitude system that will prolong the duration of rains and increase amounts.

As Isaias moves into the Carolinas, it will start its “extratropical transition”– indicating it will start to lose some of its purely tropical attributes and significantly take on the characteristics of a mid-latitude storm.

The figure below programs the projection surface area weather condition map for Monday night. A frontal system with weak low pressure over Ohio is stretched throughout the eastern part of the country. East of the cold front, the large Bermuda High over the western Atlantic is pumping hot, damp air northward throughout the Mid-Atlantic. The core of Isaias will advance northward into this slushy air mass.

A 2nd frontal border is expected to stall across the Carolina-Virginia-Maryland Piedmont, as displayed in the diagram above. On the other hand, a deep plume of abundant tropical moisture will overspread the Mid-Atlantic from the south(dark green shade). In the upper environment, a big, closed low-pressure system in the jet stream will advance towards the East Coast with strong winds from the south ahead of it. These winds will attract the hurricane and begin to accelerate it northward over the Carolinas and Virginia.

The storm will also feel the impact of a” jet streak,” which is a core of fast winds that will

induce vigorously increasing air. As the tropical storm becomes embedded in these mid-latitude weather systems, it will have 2 important results on the weather.

First, the rich tropical wetness being imported by Isaias will be raised and condensed within the jet streak. This will develop an advance region of heavy rain showers and thunderstorms, called “predecessor rains,” over the Mid-Atlantic, starting Monday.

The core of heavy rain associated straight with the converging, spiral winds of the vortex won't move through up until Tuesday. But the outcome of predecessor rain, and direct rain of the storm, will be adding up remarkable– if not harmful– totals for parts of the Mid-Atlantic, over a 36- to 48-hour duration.

Second, due to the fact that the hurricane will come under the impact of jet stream dynamics, the additional source of energy might keep Isaias more extreme even as it moves inland. Simply put, the storm might not decay as quickly as it moves over the Piedmont. This will equate into strong continual winds and even more powerful gusts.

Winds to the west of the track across the Mid-Atlantic will be weaker than those on the east side. Due to the fact that winds blow counterclockwise around the storm, the southerly winds to the east of the track will add with the storm movement, improving wind speeds there. To the west, fast movement towards the north will partly cancel strong winds blowing from the north.

As long as the storm's track remains to the east of D.C., the instant city area need to be spared from any substantial winds, conserve for a gusty couple of hours as the storm passes by. The wind-gust forecast map below reveals the strong gradient of winds, with winds wailing along the Chesapeake Bay. Along both shores and over the core of the bay, winds can quickly gust into the 40-50-mph range.

With several inches of rain, really saturated soils may promote separated tree falls, along with power failures in the eastern part of the Washington region.

If the storm track shifts to the west, a few of the more powerful winds could move over the Interstate 95 passage. If the storm moves to the east, more powerful winds would focus over the Delmarva.

Source: washingtonpost.com

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